according to the news site Ars TechnicaIn the tropical region between Africa and the Caribbean, where most major Atlantic hurricanes form, sea surface temperatures averaged 28 °C, higher than any previous July.
High sea surface temperatures often cause large storms. For example, 2005 was the year of extremely severe hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
However, July 2023 is a calm month in the Atlantic. Only one storm was named Dawn in the middle of the month and did not cause any damage.
So where were the storms?
In the Atlantic Ocean, in addition to temperature, a special factor must be considered, which is wind shear. Wind shear can be understood as a sudden change in wind speed or direction over short distances.
There are different levels of wind shear in the atmosphere. The greater the wind shear, the more turbulent the atmosphere, which means the more difficult it is for storms to form and strengthen. If the wind shear is strong enough, it can literally tear off the top of a storm.
In 2023, Earth is in El Niño, with the Atlantic wind shear greater than normal. This prevents storms from coming in spite of the warm seas.
But what happens after that?
Sea surface temperatures will certainly continue to warm. Meanwhile, according to weather forecaster Michael Lowry, some weather models suggest the wind shear could subside by the end of August. This signals that a dangerous hurricane season is about to begin.
Renowned weather forecasters such as Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (USA) and the Met Service (Met) of the United Kingdom have issued special warnings that storms are likely to occur in the next two months. Dangerous storm.