Analysts say India’s latest ban is very similar to those imposed in 2007 and 2008, which led to a domino effect when several other countries were forced to restrict exports to protect domestic consumers. However, this time, the impact on supply and prices in the global market could be more profound as India now accounts for over 40% of the global rice trade, up from 22% 15 years ago, putting pressure on the world market. Other rice exporting countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
Importers are still grappling with tight supplies due to erratic weather and disruption to shipping via the Black Sea caused by the conflict in Ukraine, according to news agency Reuters. Mr. Nitin Gupta, Senior Vice President, Agricultural products company Olam Agri (India) – one of the world’s leading rice exporters, said: “Thailand, Vietnam and other exporting countries are ready. Ready to take action to meet the shortfall. ” In supply from India.”
Farmers drying rice on a road in the state of Assam – India Photo: Reuters
Global rice prices have increased by about 20% since India imposed the ban. According to traders from international trading companies, Thailand and Vietnam may limit exports if rice prices continue to rise by 15%. BV Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association of India, said New Delhi may reverse the ban on rice exports if monsoon rains stabilize and help normalize production. According to Mr. Rao, only supplies from India can restore balance in the global rice market. Mr Peter Club, analyst at the International Grains Council (IGC) in the UK, analysed: “We will have to see how long India’s export ban order remains in effect. The longer the ban lasts, the more difficult it will be for other exporters to make up for the shortfall. to be completed (estimated at 10 million tonnes of rice)”.
Meanwhile, floods in China have damaged crops of corn and rice in the vital northern grain production belt. Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness (China) agricultural consulting company, said: “The floods are really affecting rice production in the northeast and production in the damaged areas could be down by three% – 5%”.
According to Bloomberg, in an effort to secure domestic supplies, Philippines Deputy Agriculture Minister Domingo Panganiban said the country is in talks to import rice from Vietnam and India to bolster national reserves and reduce domestic rice prices. Used to be. The Philippines is one of the world’s largest rice producers, but often buys rice from major suppliers such as Thailand and Vietnam to compensate for production losses caused by typhoons.
