Location and direction of storm No. 5 – Photo: National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting
According to the National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting, after Typhoon Conson entered the East Sea and became the No. 5 storm, at 10:00 a.m. on September 10, the center of the storm was located on the southern sea of the archipelago. Hoang Sa.
The strongest wind in the area near the center of the storm is strong at level 10 (90-100km/h), level 12 gusts. The radius of strong winds from level 6, gusts from level 8 upwards is about 160km from the center of the storm.
In addition, in the Pacific Ocean, there is another storm, Chanthu, what impacts will the two storms following each other cause, said Hoang Phuc Lam – deputy director of the Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting. country responds to this issue.
* Could you please tell me the latest update on the interaction of two storms Conson and Chanthu, 2 closely followed storms, how dangerous effects are they?
– Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam: According to the theory of the Fujiwara effect, when two storms are within a distance of 1,500 km, there will be interactions. At the time when Typhoon Conson was on the East Sea at 120 degrees longitude, Chanthu was at 130 degrees longitude, which is 1,100 km apart, however, Chanthu storm had a relatively small circulation although its intensity was very strong, so there was basically no storm. Interaction with Hurricane Conson.
In fact, in recent hours, when Typhoon Chanthu tends to weaken and the storm circulation expands, while Typhoon Conson begins to increase in intensity, the size and intensity of the two storms are approximately the same and begin to show signs of improvement. The interaction signal is quite small and relatively weak, so the storm Conson moves quite stably, while the storm Chanthu moves to the north, so the impact is very small.
It is forecasted that when two storms move close to each other, with a distance of less than 1,500 km, an interaction will occur, which causes both the trajectory and intensity of storms to change unpredictably. It is expected that from September 11 to 12, there is a possibility of an interaction between the two storms, when the intensity and size are similar around level 11, then Hurricane Conson tends to slow down before the two storms separate. away from each other and Hurricane Conson continued to move as forecast.
* According to current forecast models, will Super Typhoon Chanthu enter the East Sea and become the No. 6 storm, sir?
– The latest forecasts show that Typhoon Chanthu will move to the northwest, then move to the north, so the possibility of entering the East Sea to become a storm No. 6 is very small, mainly moving towards Taiwan. (China) then changed direction to the outside.
* In the 2020 hurricane season, after the 5th storm, there were 5 consecutive storms appearing within 1 month. Will this year repeat the stormy storm scenario like in 2020 when in fact there is now a strong storm closely following Hurricane Conson, sir?
– It can be said that the storm surge scenario at least does not occur in September. However, this time is not the peak of the hurricane season, but October and November are the peaks of this year’s hurricane season; May last until January 2022 and there is still the possibility of consecutive storms, but the scenario with up to 5 consecutive storms is less likely to occur this year but 2-3 consecutive storms is entirely possible. out.
* Currently, the international forecasting agencies for Hurricane Conson are relatively scattered, so on what bases does the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting make this official forecast?
– The National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting uses all international forecast products as well as other forecasting units inside and outside the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology to synthesize.
Particularly, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting is currently running 4 forecast versions per day; In each session, 32 different models are run, combined with international forecasts to produce a combined forecast of hundreds of different options.
The forecasts of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting sent to the leaders as well as the National Steering Committee for natural disaster prevention and control are scenarios, including the most likely scenario. , scenarios with extreme nature such as: the most dangerous and the least dangerous scenario, the most southerly, the most northerly…
* For the current evolution of storm No. 5, could you please tell me when it will affect the mainland, have there been rain forecasts for the mainland due to storms and storm circulation?
– From the night of September 10, the sea area from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including Ly Son and Con Co island districts has strong winds gradually to level 7-8, then increased to level 9-10, level 12 shocks; sea waves) 4-5m high; the sea is very rough.
From the night of September 10 to September 13, the provinces of Quang Tri to Quang Ngai have heavy to very heavy rains with a common rainfall of 200-300mm/time, over 350mm/time in some places, in Quang Nam-Quang Ngai popular. 100-200mm/batch, some places over 200mm/batch.
The influence of storm No. 5, the area from Thanh Hoa to Quang Binh will be mainly heavy rain. From September 12 to 14, the provinces from Quang Binh to Thanh Hoa have moderate rain, heavy rain, some places with very heavy rain with a common rainfall of 100-200mm/time, especially Quang Binh and Ha Tinh have over 250mm/time. batch.
The evolution of storm No. 5 is still complicated, detailed updated forecasts will be broadcast in the official storm bulletins of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting and the mass media for people to follow. track.